2015 STATE OF THE UNION 56,527

2015

STATE  OF  THE

UNION

*  Special thanks to "Google Images", "Fact Check.org" and "USA Today"

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by Felicity Blaze Noodleman
Los Angeles, CA
1.23.15

AP Photo

President Obama's State of the Union Address to Congress and the Country at large this week filled the minimum requirements for the event specified by Congress for thee President.  To say that the President was "Cherry Picking" the issues he chose to speak on is most of the real truth about the address!  The Media loves Obama and continues to prop his up as they always have in the past, but with a newly elected Republican majority in Congress the President's feet will be firmly held to the fire when it comes to everything from the accountability of Government spending to the number of miles he puts on aboard Air Force One!

The next year promises to be filled with sparks as the Executive branch clashes with the Legislative branch in Washington DC.  The Judicial branch will be called into action on many issues as well.  With a number of law suites already filed against the Administration things are sure to be hot in the Capitol for 2015.  And finally; a new area of controversy is beginning to form for the Administration - Foreign Affairs.

As with all Presidents this annual address to Congress is more about a wish list for the Chief Executive to be fulfilled within the coming year and a statement of propaganda for him and his party at large.  In Obama's case he has a real problem with sticking to the truth and has a history with fabricating the truth about some very important issues.  Actually; Obama's title is more like "Lier in Chief"!  This week we turn to "Fact Check".org to analyze the truth in what Mr. Obama had to say in his remarks Tuesday night.

"factcheck.org"

FactChecking Obama’s State of the Union

In his sixth annual address, the president stretched some facts on his record.

 

President Barack Obama waves as he arrives to deliver his state of the Union Address

to a joint session of Congress on Capitol Hill Tuesday January 20, 2015, in Washington DC

AP Photo / Mandel Negan Pool

http://mashable.com/2015/01/20/obama-state-of-the-union/

Summary

President Barack Obama largely stuck to the facts in his State of the Union address, although he did cherry-pick data and exaggerate at times to put the best spin on his accomplishments.

Some highlights:

•  Obama made the inflated claim that “more than half of manufacturing executives have said they’re actively looking to bring jobs back from China.” A survey showed most “expressed interest” in it, but are not “actively looking” at doing it.
• Obama exaggerated when he said the U.S. is “the only advanced country on Earth that doesn’t guarantee paid sick leave.” Canada and Japan also don’t mandate paid short-term sick leave, which is what Obama is seeking for the U.S.
• The president boasted that the U.S. has gained 11 million private sector jobs in five years. Yes, but that ignores his first 13 months in office and a net loss of public sector jobs. Totalemployment growth during his time in office is about 6.4 million.
• Obama also boasted that “more of our people are insured than ever before.” But that’s based on an administration analysis that compares the second quarter of 2014 to years past. We don’t have the full 2014 federal numbers yet.

Analysis

The president delivered his sixth State of the Union address at a joint session of Congress on Jan. 20. But it was his first under a Congress controlled by Republicans. Much of his speech was devoted to the improving economy.

Manufacturing Jobs

Obama made the inflated claim that “more than half of manufacturing executives have said they’re actively looking to bring jobs back from China.”

The president was referring to an August 2014 survey of 252 senior manufacturing executives in the U.S. conducted by the Boston Consulting Group. But the survey’s findings don’t exactly back up the president’s claim.

While 54 percent of those surveyed “expressed interest in reshoring,” only 16 percent said they are “already bringing production back from China to the United States,” a 20 percent increase from the 2013 survey. And 20 percent of those polled said that “they would consider returning production in the near future,” up 24 percent from 2013.

Obama also said that since 2010 “[o]ur manufacturers have added almost 800,000 new jobs.” That’s true enough, but there has been a net loss of manufacturing jobs during the president’s time in office.

Since January 2010, the time frame used by the president, the U.S. has seen an increase of 777,000 manufacturing jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But since January 2009, when Obama took office, the U.S. has seen a net decline of 321,000 manufacturing jobs, the same BLS data show.

In a recent study, the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation rejected talk of a “manufacturing renaissance,” calling it a “myth,” and noting there still is a long way to go. Even with the recent increase in manufacturing jobs, there are still nearly 1.8 million fewer manufacturing jobs than there were in January 2007, BLS figures show.

“Much of the growth since 2010 appears to be caused by a cyclical recovery as demand, particularly for motor vehicles and other durable goods, returns,” the ITIF report said.

Economic Growth

The president fudged a bit when he said economic growth and job gains are the best in 16 years.

Obama: Tonight, after a breakthrough year for America, our economy is growing and creating jobs at the fastest pace since 1999.

Not quite.

As for how fast “our economy is growing,” official figures from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis put the gain in real gross domestic product at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the third quarter of last year. Those are the most recent figures available, and they represent the best quarterly gain in some time. But not since 1999.

The BEA’s figures show real GDP grew at a rate of 6.9 percent in the third quarter of 2003, and at 7.8 percent in the second quarter of 2000.

And as for “creating jobs,” the White House has pointed to a preliminary figure of 2.95 million jobs gained in 2014, which is the best since 1999 if it holds up when the BLS completes its normal revisions of job figures, which could go up or down.

But the president spoke in present tense — saying the economy “is … creating jobs” at the fastest clip since 1999. And by more immediate measures the pace is not quite the most rapid since 1999. BLS puts the gain in total nonfarm employment during the most recent three-month period (ending in December) at 866,000 jobs. That’s a respectable number, but not the best three-month gain since 1999.

The BLS figures show other three-month stretches in 2010, 2006, 2004 and 2000 when even more jobs were added.

3-Month Net Change (in thousands)
Total Nonfarm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Sick Pay

Obama exaggerated when he said the United States was “the only advanced country on Earth that doesn’t guarantee paid sick leave.”

While Canada and Japan have social insurance programs that would cover an extended leave for cancer treatment, they don’t have guaranteed paid leave for an illness that lasts a few days. And Obama made the claim in calling for “a bill that gives every worker in America the opportunity to earn seven days of paid sick leave.”

A 2009 report by the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a group funded by various labor groups and foundations, examined policies in 22 countries “ranked highly in terms of economic and human development.” It says in the first paragraph that the U.S. is “the only country that does not guarantee that workers receive paid sick days or paid sick leave,” but it goes on to say that neither Canada nor Japan has a policy for financial support for short-term leave, for an illness such as a five-day flu. Those countries do have social insurance that would cover some of the pay for an employee needing 50 days off for cancer treatment. Those are the two scenarios examined in the study.

The report says that 11 countries guaranteed full pay for an illness requiring five sick days. Others paid for some missed time, but not all five days (and in a few cases not even one full day), because of waiting periods before the financial support would kick in.

Obama also said that the U.S. was the “only advanced country on Earth that doesn’t guarantee … paid maternity leave to our workers.” A 2014 report from the United Nation’sInternational Labour Organization found: “Only two out of 185 countries and territories currently provide no statutory cash benefits during maternity leave.” The two countries were Papua New Guinea and the United States, both of which provide some kind of maternity leave but no requirement for paid leave.

The U.S. Family and Medical Leave Act requires 12 weeks of unpaid leave for new mothers who have worked for one year for employers with more than 50 workers. Employers may require a substitution of paid sick or vacation days for the FMLA leave.

However, the International Labour Organization report went on to say that the benefits in more than half of those 185 countries “were neither generous nor sufficiently long-lasting.” It calls for 14 weeks of pay equal to two-thirds of previous earnings, a standard met by 85 percent of developed countries.

And not all women are eligible for benefits. “Only 28.4 per cent of employed women worldwide would receive cash benefits in case of maternity,” the report said.

Private Sector Job Growth

The president was correct when he said the U.S. has gained 11 million private sector jobs in the past five years.

Obama: And over the past five years, our businesses have created more than 11 million new jobs.

That’s true as far as it goes. The economy gained 11,215,000 private sector jobs between February 2010 and the preliminary figures for December of last year.

Of course, the president said nothing of the 4,210,000 private sector jobs that were lost during the first 13 months of his tenure as president, due to the savage recession that was raging at the time he took office.

Overall, since Obama took office, the net gain in private sector employment is just over 7 million. And the gain in total employment during his time in office is lower than that — just under 6.4 million. That’s because of a net loss in government jobs, particularly in local school systems.

 Abortion and Teen Pregnancies in Decline

Obama was right when he said “teen pregnancies and abortions are nearing all-time lows.”

Obama: We still may not agree on a woman’s right to choose, but surely we can agree it’s a good thing that teen pregnancies and abortions are nearing all-time lows, and that every woman should have access to the health care she needs.

The rate of teen pregnancies in the U.S. has been on the decline for decades, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Division of Vital Statistics. In 2013, there were 274,641 babies born to females aged 15 to 19, a rate of 26.6 births for every 1,000 teen mothers. That was a 10 percent decline from 2012 and “the lowest number of teen births ever reported for the United States.” According to CDC, it was also 57 percent lower than in 1970, the peak year for teen births.

However, despite this progress, teen pregnancies in the U.S. still outpace many other developed countries including Canada and the United Kingdom, according to United Nations statistics.

As for abortions, the Guttmacher Institute reported in July 2014 that the rate of abortions in 2011 was the lowest since 1973. In 2011, “1.06 million abortions were performed, down 13 percent from 1.21 million in 2008.”

 China’s ‘Commitment’ on Emissions

In a section of his speech dealing with efforts to address climate change, Obama touted a recent agreement with China.

Obama: In Beijing, we made an historic announcement – the United States will double the pace at which we cut carbon pollution, and China committed, for the first time, to limiting their emissions.

Committed? Not exactly.

In a joint announcement on Nov. 12, 2014, both the U.S. and China said they “intend to achieve” emissions targets. For its part, the U.S. said it “intends to achieve an economy-wide target of reducing its emissions by 26%-28% below its 2005 level in 2025 and to make best efforts to reduce its emissions by 28%.” China, meanwhile, said it “intends to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030 and to make best efforts to peak early and intends to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20% by 2030.”

The agreement was hailed by the Natural Resources Defense Council as “a turning point in the fight against global warming.” But the deal was derided by many Republican leaders, including Sen. Jim Inhofe, a Republican senator from Oklahoma and new chair of the Senate Environment Committee, who released a statement condemning the deal as a “non-binding charade.”

As we wrote in a story about the climate deal with China, it’s true, as Inhofe said, that the deal is not a legally binding treaty, which would need Senate ratification. As the language in the announcement makes clear, the countries said they “intend to achieve” specific targets, but that’s not quite a binding commitment.

Health Insurance

Obama’s boast about the decline in the uninsured is supported by early estimates from inside and outside his administration.

Obama: And in the past year alone, about 10 million uninsured Americans finally gained the security of health coverage.

That figure is echoed by a quarterly survey conducted by the Urban Institute and a report by researchers with the Department of Health and Human Services and Harvard School of Public Health.

But we don’t yet know if Obama can claim that “more of our people are insured than ever before,” as he said earlier in his speech. An analysis of the percentage of uninsured by the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers shows that, but compares the second quarter of 2014 to years past. We don’t have the full 2014 federal numbers yet.

The Urban Institute’s Health Reform Monitoring Survey says the number of the uninsured dropped by 10.6 million nonelderly adults between September 2013 and September 2014. (The Affordable Care Act’s first open enrollment period for policies purchased by individuals was from Oct. 1, 2013, through March 31, 2014.)

An earlier estimate from researchers with the Department of Health and Human Services and Harvard School of Public Health put the decline of the uninsured at 10.3 million adults from January 2012 through June 2014. Their report, published in The New England Journal of Medicine, noted that “depending on the model and confidence intervals, our sensitivity analyses imply a wide range from 7.3 to 17.2 million adults.”

Estimates from the most recent National Health Interview Survey conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics show a drop of 6.8 million people (of all ages) who were without health insurance at the time they were interviewed in the first six months of 2014, compared with 2013 (see Table 2). Those numbers were just released in December, so we won’t have a fuller look at the changes between 2013 and 2014 overall for some months.

Obama cited a statistic from his own Council of Economic Advisers in saying that “more of our people are insured than ever before.” The CEA used National Center for Health Statistics data and estimated that “the nation’s uninsured rate is now at or near the lowest level recorded across five decades of data.”

The data go back to 1963, and CEA had to make some adjustments due to changes in survey construction over the years. As we said, figures for all of 2014 aren’t yet available, so CEAcompares the percentage of uninsured for the second quarter of 2014 (11.3 percent) to figures from past years. That’s the lowest rate in CEA’s chart, but only 0.1 percentage points below the rate in 1974, 1978 and 1980 (see the table on page 11).

The figure for the first six months of 2014, not just the second quarter, is higher, however, at 12.2 percent (see Table 1). It remains to be seen how 2014 as a whole will compare to the past.

The National Center for Health Statistics’ trend numbers for those without health insurance under age 65 (see Table 3) show that the first six months of 2014 had a lower percentage of uninsured than most of the past years — but not all. The percentage of the uninsured under age 65 was lower in 1974, 1978, 1980 and 1982.

Deficits

In ticking off his accomplishments, Obama listed this one: “our deficits cut by two-thirds.” That’s accurate, but as we have written before, the deficits have fallen from high levels and are on pace to return to high levels.

When Obama took office in January 2009, the federal deficit for fiscal year 2009 was already on pace to be $1.2 trillion and topped $1.4 trillion by the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30, 2009. Annual deficits remained above $1 trillion for three more years before dropping to $680 billion in fiscal 2013.

The U.S. finished the most recent fiscal year with a deficit of $483 billion — roughly down two-thirds from what it was in fiscal 2009, as the president said.

But, as we noted in our quarterly report on Obama’s presidency, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that annual deficits will soon rise again if Congress doesn’t act. In a report it issued in August, CBO projected that under current law the deficit will rise above $500 billion in fiscal 2016 and hit nearly $950 billion by 2022.

Drones

Obama said his administration has “worked to make sure our use of new technology like drones is properly constrained.” Whether the use of drones has been “properly constrained” is a subjective matter. The Stimson Center, a global security think tank, for one, warned in 2014 that heavy reliance on drones “risks increasing instability and escalating conflicts.”

But as a matter of independent analysis, Obama has ordered many more drone strikes than his predecessor, George W. Bush.

Obama: As Americans, we respect human dignity, even when we’re threatened, which is why I’ve prohibited torture, and worked to make sure our use of new technology like drones is properly constrained.

No official figures are available, and for a time the Obama administration would not even publicly admit that such CIA-controlled attacks were taking place. But independent reports have found a dramatic increase in the use of covert, remote-controlled drones and missiles to attack targets in Pakistan and Yemen.

An independent estimate by the nonpartisan New America Foundation, based on what it deems to be “credible news reports,” puts the number of attacks at more than 450 since Obama took office, more than nine times as many as took place while Bush was in office. In Pakistan, the group concludes, somewhere between 1,838 and 3,041 people were killed by drones approved by Obama. Most of them were militants, the report states, but about 150 of them were civilians. As we noted in a story in April 2013, estimates by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism in Britain, while slightly different, give a similar picture.

– by Eugene Kiely, Brooks Jackson, Lori Robertson, Robert Farley, D’Angelo Gore, Carolyn Fante and Eden Everwine

Sources

Boston Consulting Group. “U.S. Executives Remain Bullish on American Manufacturing, Study Finds.” Press Release. 24 Oct 2014.

White House. “Year in Review: Creating Economic Opportunity for All Americans in 2014.” Press Release. 18 Dec 2014.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. “Table 1.1.1. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product” 1999-2014. 23 Dec 2014. Data extracted 21 Jan 2015.

Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National); Total Nonfarm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted” 3-month net change 1999-2014. Data extracted 21 Jan 2015.

Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National); Total Private Nonfarm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted.” Data extracted 21 Jan 2015.

Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National); Total Nonfarm Employment, Seasonally Adjusted.” Data extracted 21 Jan 2015.

Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National); Total Nonfarm Government Employment, Seasonally Adjusted.” Data extracted 21 Jan 2015.

Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National); Total Nonfarm Local Government Education Employment, Seasonally Adjusted.” Data extracted 21 Jan 2015.

Furman, Jason. “The Employment Situation in December” White House Council of Economic Advisers. 9 Jan 2015

Stimson Center. “Recommendations And Report of the Task Force on U.S. Drone Policy.” June 2014.

New America Foundation. “Drone Wars Pakistan: Analysis.” Accessed 21 Jan 2015.

Jackson, Brooks. “Obama’s Numbers (Quarterly Update).” FactCheck.org. 16 Apr 2013.

Bureau of Investigative Journalism. “Covert Drone War.”

Martinez, Michael E. and Robin A. Cohen. “Health Insurance Coverage: Early Release of Estimates From the National Health Interview Survey, January–June 2014.” Dec 2014.

Long, Sharon K. et. al. “Taking Stock: Health Insurance Coverage under the ACA as of September 2014.” Health Reform Monitoring Survey. Urban Institute. 3 Dec 2014.

Sommers, Benjamin D. et. al. “Health Reform and Changes in Health Insurance Coverage in 2014.” New England Journal of Medicine. 28 Aug 2014.

International Labour Organization. “Maternity and Paternity at Work: Law and practice across the world.” 2014.

Heymann, Jody et. al. “Contagion Nation: A Comparison of Paid Sick Day Policies in 22 Countries.” Center for Economic and Policy Research. May 2009.

Furman, Jason and Fiedler, Matt. “2014 Has Seen Largest Coverage Gains in Four Decades, Putting the Uninsured Rate at or Near Historic Lows.” Council of Economic Advisers. 18 Dec 2014.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “Trends in Health Care Coverage and Insurance for 1968-2011.” page updated 15 Nov 2012.

Stimson Center. “Recommendations And Report of the Task Force on U.S. Drone Policy.” June 2014.

New America Foundation. “Drone Wars Pakistan: Analysis.” Accessed 21 Jan 2015.

Jackson, Brooks. “Obama’s Numbers (Quarterly Update).” FactCheck.org. 16 Apr 2013.

Bureau of Investigative Journalism. “Covert Drone War.”

National Vital Statistics Reports. Births: Preliminary Data for 2013. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 29 May 2014.

United Nations Statistics. “Live births by age of mother and sex of child, general and age-specific fertility rates: latest available year, 2003 – 2012.”

Guttmacher Institute. “Fact Sheet: Induced Abortion in the United States.” July 2014.

White House Website. “U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change.” 11 Nov 2014.

Natural Resources Defense Council Staff Blog. Frances Beinecke’s Blog:  “Historic Announcement Shows US and China Are Serious about Fighting Climate Change.” 12 Nov 2014.

Sen. James Inhofe Website. “Press release: Inhofe: U.S.-China Climate Deal a Non-Binding Charade.” 12 Nov 2014.

Farley, Robert. “Checking Inhofe’s Energy Statistics on China.” FactCheck.org. 14 Nov 2014.

Farley, Robert. “Deficits Falling (From Way Up).” FactCheck.org. 1 Aug 2013.

Jackson, Brooks. “Obama’s Numbers (January 2015 Update)” FactCheck.org. 9 Jan 2015.

Department of Treasury Bureau of the Fiscal Service. “Monthly Treasury Statement.” 13 Nov 2014.

Congressional Budget Office. “An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024.” 27 Aug 2014.

Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National).” Data extracted 20 Jan 2015.

Nager, Adams and Robert D. Atkinson. “The Myth of America’s Manufacturing Renaissance: The Real State of U.S. Manufacturing.” The Information Technology & Innovation Foundation. 12 Jan 2015.

http://www.factcheck.org/2015/01/factchecking-obamas-state-of-the-union/

"factcheck,org"

Why should politicos be the only ones to get all punchy while President Barack Obama yammers on about something or other Tuesday night? Tap into the excitement surrounding #ThisTown’s version of the Academy Awards/Super Bowl by punctuating each prescribed buzzword with a wee nip of something special.

http://hoh.rollcall.com/state-of-the-union-drinking-bingo/

There other fact checking web sites looking at what the President spoke about on Tuesday night are similar  All of these analyzations for the Presidents speech vary little from one to the other and all of these may be found by searching Google or your favorite search engine.  We recommend our readers take a look under "Fact Check State of the Union Address - 2015".

Some of the deeper problems Noodleman found in the address are with the Presidents claims and remarks, were more with the Democratic Party's accomplishments and failures in the areas the President mentioned.  The democrats have practically destroyed this country over the last fifty years and now they want to rewrite the history and make claims which are just untrue!  

The Democrats have forced heavy industry out of the country because of their environmental policy's.  The Democrats have also destroyed home ownership and mortgages and a few banks as well.  With the falling oil and gasoline prices we begin to see another problem the Democrats have burdened the American people with.  Here again we find that the Bush administration was right again.  

Higher US oil production is good for the country and will spur cheaper energy for the Nation and will help create new jobs, not to mention saving billions for Americans at large.  These oil prices will also help US industry keep prices lower and more competitive in the world market and global economy.  We will conclude this weeks article explaining the forces at work for these lower prices in oil from "USA Today".

5 Reasons Oil Prices Aren't Rising

Jon C. Ogg, 24/7 Wall St.

11:23 a.m. EDT October 26, 2014

 (Photo: Hasan Jamali, AP)

The old oil bull market, the one where oil went to $140 per barrel, now feels like ancient history. Oil prices have recently been challenging lows not seen since 2012. Continuously rising oil prices not only translate to higher prices at the pump but also to higher prices of goods because of the increased production and transportation costs. But now the economy is dealing with steadily falling oil prices in recent months, which can contribute to deflation — itself a source of concern.

24/7 Wall St. wanted to focus on five key reasons the price of oil is not rising.

There are, of course, more than just five reasons for oil prices not rising. We avoided the role of currency movements, which have lately added a new curve ball — the dollar has rallied against major currencies, and oil is priced in dollars. Another factor we have not explored is Iran. If Iran's energy infrastructure comes back online in full, this could further add to downward pressures on oil prices.

Recent global news might make one think oil prices would have been set to shoot much higher. Despite the rise of ISIL in Iraq and Syria, and despite all the sanctions that were placed on Russia for its role in the Ukraine skirmishes and the annexation of Crimea, the price of oil has been on a steady decline. Here are five reasons you shouldn't expect oil to rise.

1. The U.S. energy boom

North America has experienced an energy boom, contributing to increasing global oil supplies. Oil and gas business in North Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Oklahoma and elsewhere have seen major expansions around shale plays. This created strong demand for pipeline and equipment suppliers, as well as rail lines, but ultimately this can create a severe bottleneck in supplies. When oil was over $100, the profits flowed. At $90, some projects look less attractive, and if oil goes under $80, many projects may have to idle.

The North American energy boom has likely helped increase global oil supplies, which in turn lowered oil prices. Indeed, OPEC and other nations have warned that North America remains the main driver for the non-OPEC supply growth in 2014.

2. The Middle East and OPEC

Despite the fighting in and around Iraq, oil prices have defied concerns of heightened geopolitical risks. The most recent news outside of official price cuts is that Saudi Arabia has reportedly been telling OPEC members that it would not be uncomfortable if oil fell to $80 per barrel for a year or two. Saudi Arabia and OPEC nations have not exactly been fond of committing to limiting production, which could keep prices low even if OPEC tightens quotas.

OPEC and certain nations in the Middle East have definitely noticed the growing clout of the United States in global energy markets. A recent OPEC supply and demand projection showed that the increase in total non-OPEC supply will outpace the growth in world oil demand. Even as recently as the start of October, there were reports that Saudi Arabia was lowering its official price of oil. More and more news reports are out hinting at oil price wars.

3. Commodity bust

Assets prices are often correlated with one another. Most stocks rise in strong stock markets, and most bond prices rise when Treasury prices rally. This can be true of commodities as well. Global commodity demand has been soft due to weakness in emerging markets and in Europe. While gold recently recovered after breaking under $1,200 per ounce, it is still way down from the $1,800 or so highs of 2011. The reality is that many commodity traders have been hurt.

The price of copper, a key indicator of global growth, has dropped from roughly $3.35 per pound at the start of 2014 to nearly $3.00 at the start of October. Even after the first week of September, aluminum prices — also a barometer of global trade expectations — have fallen from almost $0.93 per pound to below $0.84 per pound before a bounce in recent days. Coffee is one of the few rising commodities, but that is due to regional growth issues. And coffee is not considered a driving force on the world's economy.

4. Deflationary fears from Europe

Central banks around the world usually try to keep deflation in check, and now the heat is on to guard against exactly that. The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently moved to an experiment in negative interest rates to encourage bank lending and asset buying. Unfortunately, the ECB may be running out of bullets to create new stimulus. Peter Praet, an ECB executive board member, also mentioned Europe's disappointing inflation rate, and that any improvements in the area's economy would only be gradual.

Deflation in the United States could also become a concern. Dropping oil prices tend to create declining prices elsewhere.

5. Inventory trends and trading bets

The most recent U.S. Energy Information Administration release of weekly petroleum inventories showed that commercial crude inventories increased by 5 million barrels for a total U.S. commercial crude inventory of 361.7 million barrels. The American Petroleum Institute reported a similar crude inventory rise of 5.1 million barrels. All things being equal, rising inventories will bring lower prices.

There is an old saying in trading that high prices bring even higher prices. The same is true in reverse, that 52-week lows generally beget more 52-week lows. The reason for this is that many traders simply follow trends until they stop working.

One word to the wise. It takes a lot of discipline, but whenever key reports come out about a trend that appears to never end, that might actually signal its peak.

24/7 Wall St. is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news and commentary. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/10/26/reasons-oil-not-rising/17840917/

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