http://hdwallpapermania.com/angry-birds-2014-calendar-desktop-hd-wallpapers/
(Overlays by F.B. Noodleman)
* Special thanks to "Google Images", "www.gallup.com",
"Politico" and "The Washington Post"
PREPARING FOR
ELECTION
DAY 2014
BLOG POST
by Felicity Blaze Noodleman
Los Angeles, CA
10.24.14
Election Day in 2014 is on Tuesday, the 4th of November. In the United States, Election Day for
federal offices occurs on the Tuesday following the first Monday of November. Just a few words from us here at the "Noodleman Group" prior to the midterm elections. Beware however; the birds are angry for several reasons. So why is it that the birds are so angry? It seems that those Pigs in Washington have been eating their eggs again! That's enough to make any bird crazy. Unhappy about Government and also because "Turkey Day" is this month!
As we are checking our Google sources for election news we are a little confused about some of the stories we're seeing. Who's up and down. Dem.'s or Rep.'s. It really looks like every one running for elected office is trying to "put their best foot forward" and hoping to possibly trip up their opponent "for a fall this fall"!
Since President Obama is the lead man for the Democrats we should look to see how he is doing, we mean with all the news about the terrorists who call themselves ISIS and a new possible epidemic on the horizon (Ebola), how is the head hipster doing with possible Voters these days.
After the Obama numbers we will turn our attention to the top issues with voters on the National front as they are considering those running for Congressional seats and their party affiliation. This 2014 mid term election may seriously influence how voters see the Party Politics of their State and Local officials who are campaigning for office this Fall. If voters break with their Political Party's, Union's and so on, 2014 could be one of the most historic Midterm elections in a long time. One for the books, as they say!
President Barack Obama walks up the steps of Air Force One prior to departure at Philadelphia International Airport on June 30, 2011. (SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)
http://blog.seattlepi.com
/aerospace/2011/07/01/cool-photo-of-president-boarding-air-force-one/
Obama Averages 41.5% Job Approval in His
23rd Quarter
Among the lowest quarterly averages of his presidency
by Jeffrey M. Jones
WASHINGTON, D.C. --
President Barack Obama's job approval rating averaged 41.5% during his 23rd quarter in office, which began on July 20 and ended on
Oct. 19. That ranks as one of his lowest quarterly approval ratings to date.
The only two that were lower were the 41.2% in his 20th quarter -- after the troubled launch of the health
insurance exchanges last fall -- and the 41.0% in his 11thquarter during the negotiations to raise the federal debt limit
and its fallout on the U.S. economy.
Obama's first quarter
in office, when his approval rating averaged 63.0%, still ranks as his best.
Since his first year, his average quarterly approval ratings have all been
below 50%, with one important exception -- in the fall and early winter of
2012, the quarter in which he won re-election. Obama's job approval rating has
averaged 48% throughout his nearly six full years in office.
During his 23rd quarter, Obama's Gallup Daily tracking job approval ratings fell
to as low as 38% in early September, tying his personal low. That came after
the Islamic militant group ISIS beheaded two American journalists. His approval
rating did rise to 45% in Sept. 19-21 polling, shortly after he announced an
expanded U.S. program of military airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
Obama 23rd Quarterly Average Among Lowest
Five post-World War II
presidents have been elected to office twice and served a full 23rd quarter in office. Among these, George W. Bush has the
lowest 23rd quarter average approval rating at
39.1%, just slightly lower than Obama's. In contrast, Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald
Reagan and Bill Clinton were much more popular at this stage in their
presidencies, with average 23rd quarter approval
ratings of 56% or better.
The importance of a
president's 23rd quarter average cannot be understated,
as it signifies his political standing heading into the second midterm election
of his presidency. Typically the president's party's fortunes in the midterms are heavily tied
to his popularity.
For example, the
Republicans suffered heavy losses in the 2006 midterm elections under Bush,
losing majority control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Republicans also performed poorly in the 1974 midterms, just after what would
have been Richard Nixon's 23rd quarter in
office. He resigned in August just after his 23rd quarter began, with his only job approval rating measured
during that quarter at 24%.
In contrast,
presidents who were relatively popular in their 23rd quarters -- including Reagan and Clinton -- saw their
parties perform better in the midterms. In fact, in 1998, Democrats gained
seats in the House in 1998 under Clinton, a rare occurrence for the president's
party in midterm elections.
Implications
Obama's job approval
rating continues to languish near his personal lows, creating a strong headwind
for Democratic candidates in next month's midterm elections.
Based on the
historical record, it would not be surprising if Obama's approval ratings
decline further over the next three months. Although there are only four
twice-elected presidents who have served 24 quarters in office since Gallup
began polling on presidential approval, in three out of four cases their 24th quarter average was lower than their 23rd quarter average. Clinton was the exception, as his
approval rating went up, which may have been the result of a strong economy and
a rally in support in reaction to Republicans' attempts to impeach him and
remove him from office -- which Americans opposed. By contrast, Reagan's
24th quarter approval rating took a nosedive
of 10 percentage points as the Iran-Contra scandal exploded. Bush and Eisenhower
saw more modest declines.
This limited
historical pattern suggest the odds are against Obama's approval ratings
improving in the next quarter. And if Democrats have a poor showing on Election
Day, Nov. 4 -- including possibly losing their Senate majority -- Obama will
likely be politically weakened. If his job approval rating declines as a
result, he may end the next quarter with his lowest quarterly average.
Survey Methods
Results for this
Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 20-Oct. 19, 2014,
on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 45,640 adults, aged 18
and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.For
results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling
error is ±1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level.
Each sample of
national adults includes a minimum quota of 50% cellphone respondents and 50%
landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within
region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using
random-digit-dial methods.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/178736/obama-job-approval-averages-23rd-quarter.aspx
"The Washington Post"
Poll Shows Obama Approval Low, GOP Enthusiasm Higher Than Democrats’
Supporters of Sen. Mitch McConnell
(R-Ky.) rally before the incumbent’s debate with Democratic Senate nominee
Alison Lundergan Grimes in Lexington on Monday. (John Sommers II/Reuters)
By Dan Balz and Scott Clement
October
15
Dan Balz is Chief Correspondent at The Washington Post. He has served as the paper’s National Editor, Political Editor, White House correspondent and Southwest correspondent.
Heading into the final weeks
of the midterm campaign, the political landscape continues to tilt in favor of
the Republican Party, with President Obama’s overall approval rating at the
lowest level of his presidency and GOP voters signaling greater likelihood than
Democrats that they will cast ballots, according to a new
Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Americans are looking to
November and beyond with dissatisfaction about the state of the country and the
political leadership in Washington. Two-thirds say the country is seriously
off-track. And while more than 6 in 10 say the president lacks a clear plan for
governing, a slightly higher percentage says the same of Republicans in Congress.
Public impressions of the two
political parties are similarly gloomy. “Favorable” ratings for the Democratic
Party (39 percent) are at a 30-year low, and for the first time a majority
(51 percent) gives the Democrats an “unfavorable” rating. The Republicans
are rated even lower, with a 33 percent “favorable” mark. That is little
changed since last year’s government shutdown, although the party’s
“unfavorable” rating has improved.
Most worrisome for Democrats
is that their candidates will be weighed down by unhappiness with the
president. Obama’s overall approval rating stands at 40 percent, the
lowest recorded in a Post-ABC News poll during his six years in office, though
it is only a point lower than last month. Among independents, his rating is
33 percent.
The president’s economic
approval rating is better, at 44 percent, and has been moving up over the
past year, coinciding with better economic news and a decline in the
unemployment rate. Disapproval of his handling of the economy is at
51 percent, the best it has been since September of last year.
Little affection for Republicans or Democrats heading into midterms
Majorities have little confidence in either side’s leadership. Both the Republican and Democratic parties are at or near record lows in popularity, and President Obama has hit a new low in job approval. Republicans have the advantage in the final month before the midterm elections, with more of their partisans saying they are certain to vote.
SOURCE: This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 9-12, 2014, among a random sample of 1,006 adults. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish on land lines and cellphones. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for the full sample, 3.5 points for the sample of 871 registered voters and 4.5 points for 629 likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.. The Washington Post. Published on October 15, 2014, 7:00 a.m.
But public support for his
handling of the threats posed by Islamic State extremists has tumbled
dramatically in just the past few weeks, falling from 50 percent approval
at the end of September to just 35 percent today. Three weeks ago, his
rating on dealing with the Islamic State was a net positive by six points.
Today it is net negative by 16 points.
On other measures, the
president is at or near low points, whether international affairs, terrorism or
implementation of the Affordable Care Act.
His worst rating comes on his
handling of immigration, with just 29 percent saying they approve of how
he has handled the issue, down nine points since June. Obama has said he will
use his executive powers to make changes, including giving some kind of legal
status to millions of undocumented immigrants — but not until after the
elections, a decision that satisfied neither side.
Meanwhile, analysis of the
survey findings shows that the Republican electorate is more motivated to vote
in this election than are the Democrats. Seventy-seven percent of Republicans
say they are certain to vote, compared with 63 percent of Democrats.
Democrats often have more
trouble turning out their base voters in midterm elections. This year, they
have made unprecedented efforts to register new voters and turn out those who
often vote only in presidential races.
Midterm elections generally
are a referendum on the party that holds the White House, and the president’s
party almost always loses seats. Today, 62 percent of registered voters
say the president will not be a factor in their vote next month, up eight
points in a month. But among those who say he will be a factor, more say they
will use their vote to send a message that they oppose Obama.
Among independents,
23 percent say they want to send a message to oppose the president while 8
percent want to support him with their vote. Meanwhile, 46 percent of
Republicans say they will vote to send a message of opposition to the
president, while just 30 percent of Democrats say they are voting to send
a message of support for Obama.
About this project
Like most forecasting models, Election Lab uses the past to predict the future. To predict House and Senate elections in 2014, we draw on the elections from 1980-2012. We first look at how well key factors were related to outcomes in those past elections. Then, we gather information about those same factors for 2014. Assuming that these factors will be related to election outcomes in 2014 in the same way they were from 1980 to 2012, we can make a prediction about who will win each race.
Four years ago, when
Republicans made major gains, the scales on this question were more evenly
balanced. Then, 49 percent of Republicans said they wanted to send a
signal of opposition to Obama with their vote, while 50 percent of
Democrats said they were sending a message of support.
On the question of which
House candidate, Republican or Democrat, people plan to vote for, Democrats
hold a tenuous edge of 46 percent to 44 percent among registered
voters. But among likely voters, Republicans hold a more sizable advantage,
50 percent to 43 percent. Self-identified independents favor
Republicans 51 percent to 32 percent, and among the roughly
one-quarter of the likely electorate that has an unfavorable view of both
political parties, Republicans hold a lead of 53 percent to
32 percent.
The question has been an
imperfect indicator of election results, but generally Democrats need a bigger
advantage to do well in elections.
There is no similar question
about Senate races. Republicans need to win a net of six seats to take control
of that chamber, and they have opportunities in more than enough states to do
so. Competitive races in several Republican-held states have complicated the
forecasts, although political models give Republicans the edge.
The Democrats do best on
questions of which party seems more in touch with average Americans.
Pluralities of registered voters see Democrats as better representing their own
personal values, as being more concerned about people’s needs and as better
understanding the economic problems that people are having. A plurality of registered
voters see Republicans as the party with better ideas about the right size and
scope for the federal government.
The public is more evenly
divided on the question of which party is more trusted dealing with the
country’s main problems. Among all adults, whether registered to vote or not,
Americans split evenly, 39 percent to 39 percent, with 15 percent
saying they trust neither party. (The rest say they trust both parties equally
or have no opinion.)
Until this fall, Democrats
have long had the advantage on this question among the general population,
sometimes by double digits. When the results are limited to registered voters,
the survey finds Republicans with a slim three-point advantage, growing to eight
points among likely voters.
On specific issues, Democrats
lead among registered voters on health care, helping the middle class,
abortion, same-sex marriage and, by 27 points, dealing with issues of
importance to women. Republicans lead on the economy, the deficit and, by 19
points, dealing with threats from the Islamic State.
Jobs and the economy still
top the list of issues voters say are most important in their decision, at
37 percent, with Democrats, Republicans and independents in almost
identical agreement. For both Democrats and Republicans, health care ranks
second, but independents say the way things are working in Washington is their
second-most-important issue.
The Post-ABC poll was
conducted by telephone last Thursday through Sunday among a random national
sample of 1,006 adults, including interviews on conventional and cellular
phones. The overall margin of sampling error is 3.5 percentage points.
"The Washington Post" http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-shows-obama-approval-low-gop-enthusiasm-higher-than-democrats/2014/10/14/d9e7e4d6-53d5-11e4-ba4b-f6333e2c0453_story.html
Protesters,
unhappy about executive bonuses, bellowed at people looking out the windows of
an American International Group office building in New York last April. (Image from 2010 still resounds today.)
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2010/0308/Why-Americans-are-so-angry
"Politico"
POLITICO Poll: Alarm, Anxiety As Election Looms
By ALEXANDER BURNS | 10/20/14
5:03 AM EDT
Updated: 10/20/14 11:30 PM EDT
An overwhelming majority
of voters in the most competitive 2014 elections say it feels as if events in
the United States are “out of control” and expressed mounting alarm about
terrorism, anxiety about Ebola and harsh skepticism of both political parties only
three weeks before the Nov. 4 midterms.
In a POLITICO poll testing
the hardest-fought states and congressional districts of the year, two-thirds
of likely voters said they feel that the United States has lost control of its
major challenges. Only 36 percent said the country is “in a good position to
meet its economic and national security” hurdles.
If no individual issue
has come to define this election — like health care in the 2010 campaign or the
Iraq War in 2006 — the accumulation of disparate fears has created a sense of
pessimism and frustration across the midterm landscape.
The public distress
manifests itself across a range of issues:
- Terrorism: Eighty-four
percent of voters say the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant poses a
“serious” threat to the U.S. homeland, including 43 percent who say it poses a
“very serious” threat. Just 12 percent said the Islamic State, also known as
ISIS, is not a serious concern.
- Health care: Most
voters believe their health care costs will go up under the Affordable Care
Act. Fifty-seven percent said they believe their personal costs will increase,
while only 7 percent said they will decrease. A third said their costs would
remain the same. (At the same time, support for repealing Obamacare has
continued to drop, now down to 41 percent.)
- Presidential management: Voters in the midterm battleground states are evenly split
on whether President Barack Obama or George W. Bush was more effective at
managing the federal government. Thirty-eighty percent named Bush, while 35
percent preferred Obama. A quarter of respondents said the two men were equally
competent.
- Ebola: Only 22 percent of
respondents said they had a lot of confidence that the government is doing
everything it can to contain the contagious disease. Thirty-nine percent they
had some confidence, while a third said they had little or no confidence. The
poll concluded Oct. 11, before the hospitalization of the second nurse who
treated an Ebola patient in Dallas.
Virginia voter Amaris
Landecho, 33, said her main concerns this year were largely about the “economy
and the housing market” until Ebola came along, raising questions about
“whether the government is prepared to handle issues like this.”
“My mind tells me they
are not prepared for this, but my heart is filled with hope that they are,”
said Landecho, who works at a military hospital and expects to vote Democratic.
She added: “I’m upset with Congress — the whole thing, Democrat or Republican.
It doesn’t matter.”
Charlene Pierson, a
retired church secretary in Michigan, said she thinks the Ebola scare is “very,
very hyped up,” but has concerns about Obama’s leadership style overall. “The
man has spent most of his time not knowing what’s going on in his own
government, and he’s supposed to be commander in chief,” said Pierson, 68, who
plans to vote Republican.
The atmosphere of fear and
anxiety has not produced a decisive advantage for either party on the
congressional ballot. Forty-four percent of voters said they would vote for
Democrats next month, while 41 percent said they preferred Republicans. That
represents a tiny shift in the Democratic direction since POLITICO’s last poll,
in early September, well within the margin of error.
The new poll, designed
by SocialSphere Inc. and conducted by the research firm GfK, tested 840 likely
voters in competitive U.S. House and Senate races. The poll was conducted
online using GfK’s KnowledgePanel methodology, which is also employed by The
Associated Press. The poll ran from Oct. 3 to 11 and has an overall margin of
error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Republicans appear
likely to prevail in many of the hardest-fought races of the year and stand a
good chance of taking control of the Senate. In the bigger picture, however,
there is little to indicate that the GOP has rehabilitated itself in the eyes
of voters since its setbacks in the 2012 presidential election.
The Republican Party
continue to trail heavily among young and nonwhite voters, losing Hispanics by
25 points, African-Americans by 74 points, women by 5 points and every age
group of voters under 65.
But the GOP maintains
important leads among whites (12 points), voters over 65 (12 points) and men (4
points) — advantages that are likely to prove decisive on a midterm electoral
map tilted toward less diverse and more conservative states in the South and
Mountain West.
Voters disapprove of
congressional Republicans by a 40-point margin, 70 percent to 30 percent,
including 38 percent who strongly disapprove of the Hill GOP. For Democrats,
the numbers are only a bit better: 61 percent disapprove and 38 percent
approve.
Asked which party is
closer to big business and Wall Street, 39 percent of respondents said it was
Republicans versus only 9 percent who said it was the Democrats. Fifty-one
percent said both parties were equally close to big business and the financial
sector.
Malcolm Carter, a
retired schoolteacher in Kentucky, said he planned to vote Republican — and
support Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for another term — as “the
lesser of two evils.” “I think the Democratic Party is leading us down a road
that we can never recover from,” said Carter, 73. “Not that Mitch McConnell is
my favorite.”
While the economy and
other domestic issues still reign supreme, voters have shifted their attention
noticeably toward national security since POLITICO began polling the midterm
battleground races earlier this year.
In May, half of likely
voters named economic issues as their chief concerns, while only 6 percent
named national security, foreign affairs or terrorism.
Now, those numbers are
40 percent for the economy and 22 percent for national security, foreign
affairs and terrorism.
And the same pool of
voters that expressed intense resistance to U.S. military intervention overseas
in a July POLITICO poll now say they are more concerned about terrorism against
the homeland (60 percent) than the possibility of another “drawn-out U.S. war
in Iraq” (39 percent.)
Elizabeth Ivey, an
insurance agent in Panama City Beach, Florida, said she feels that national
security issues have become “a constant” in U.S. politics. “If it’s not one
thing, it’s another that’s coming up,” said Ivey, 48, who intends to vote
Republican. “I am worried about ISIS; I think it’s something that we need to
keep over, away from our country. I do support us going over there and fighting
in the Middle East.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/politico-poll-2014-elections-112016.html
"Politico"
"The Washington Post"
Newest Midterm Forecasts Are Bullish For The GOP
By Paul Gronke and Phillip Ardoin October 6
There’s no more
accurate way to predict the day’s weather than looking out the window that
morning, and there’s no more accurate way to forecast an election than looking
at the polls on election eve. There are several academic and nonacademic
meteorologists — The Washington Post’s Election Lab, Five Thirty Eight, The Upshot, Princeton
Election Consortium, Daily
Kos, Pollster and more — providing daily
election forecasts. These models currently rely on aggregated preelection
polls, with a sprinkle of the fundamentals and a dash
of state-specific factors.
Political
science forecasting dates to at least 40 years ago, when Edward Tufte
published his famous 1975 paper in the American
Political Science Review. A Google scholar search on “political science election forecasts”returns
over 50,000 results over 40 years and spanning elections worldwide.
For the past 12
years, the political science journal PS has published a symposium featuring
midterm and presidential election forecasts by leading political scientists. This year’s symposium is being
released Monday. It forecasts sunny days ahead for the GOP — a net gain
between four and 16 seats in the House and five to eight seats in the
Senate. Three of the five Senate forecasts would lead to unified Republican
control of Congress.
(Note: The Highton, McGhee, and Sides forecast dates to when the
PS issue went to press. Updated forecasts are published at Election Lab.)
With new polls
coming out daily, why pay attention to these forecasts?
To continue the
analogy, political scientists are the climate
scientists of the meteorological world, not the short-term
weather forecasters. The PS forecasts are not based on a simple aggregation of
polling data. Alan Abramowitz’s model, for instance,
captures shifting political sentiments nationwide without reference to a
specific race. Joseph Bafumi, Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien quite consciously rely only on
information collected well before the election. Their approaches parallel the
difference between climate science and short-term weather forecasts.
Political
scientists enjoy playing the election prediction game, just like journalists,
but we draw a bright line between forecasting and understanding. A light-hearted example by Michael Alvarez
and Brian Loynd published 20 years ago illustrates the difference. Alvarez and
Loynd showed that an American League victory in the World Series
contributes nearly 12 percentage points to the Republican Party’s vote total.
(One can only speculate about the impact that interleague play has had on this
important result!) But Alvarez and Loynd never thought that the World Series
had any direct causal link to election outcomes, just like last year’s
snowstorms in Washington, D.C., tell us anything about long-term climate
change.
The value of
the political science models is to assess how well we can predict the election,
even significantly ahead of time, based on scientific theory. These models provide a
baseline for how well a party “should” do that we can then use to understand
the results. For example, the disjuncture between the 2010 forecasts and the
results provided evidence for the impact of salient roll call votes on
vote outcomes. James Campbell developed the now common metaphor of
“wave” elections in response tounderestimates of the 1994 Republican victory.
In short, the
point of political science models is not just to tell us who will win, but to
help us determine why they won.
Phillip Ardoin
and Paul Gronke are co-editors of PS: Political Science and Politics. Ardoin is
chair and professor of political science at Appalachian State
University. Gronke is the Daniel B. German visiting professor at
Appalachian State and director of the Early Voting Information Center.
"The Washington Post" http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/10/06/newest-midterm-forecasts-are-bullish-for-the-gop/
 |
| http://www.giantbomb.com/images/1300-608660/ |
The count down is on Mr. and Mrs USA and all those in between! Have the Democrats left the Evil Genie's bottle uncorked yet again for another round of unrest in the Middle East and more World Wide Terrorism? Will the Republicans capitalise on the mistakes of Democrats and The President in Washington? Will "Obama Care" and the new minimum wadge of $10.10 pass the "Acid Test" this Fall? We will know the answers to these and other questions on November 4th. and 5th., as you the voters, let the world know how you feel and vote. This has been Felicity again writing for the "Noodleman Group" on "Google Blogger".
Anger is the emotion of the day. Homeowners are angry. The unemployed are angry. Voters are angry. Conservatives are especially angry, and Tea Partiers are the angriest of all. A New York Times poll shows that 6 out of 10 voters don’t like their own representative. And, by gosh, we’re going to throw them out.
http://edsteinink.com/topic/opinion-cartoon-2010-election-voting-voter-anger-tea-party-anger-management-angry-electorate/
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* “The Noodleman Group” is pleased to announce that we are now carrying a link to the “USA Today” news site.We installed the “widget/gadget” August 20, and it will be carried as a regular feature on our site.Now you can read“Noodleman” and then check in to “USA Today” for all the up to date News, Weather, Sports and more!Just scroll all the way down to the bottom of our site and hit the “USA Today” hyperlinks.Enjoy!
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